An Ode to Rain
There is something
within me
that is a desert,
a dying plain of cracked mud,
an empty cup
that forever thirsts
for another sip
of rain.
that is a desert,
a dying plain of cracked mud,
an empty cup
that forever thirsts
for another sip
of rain.
Kalidasa would not have chosen this year to write Meghdoot. The famed southwest monsoon of
the Indian subcontinent is at its five year lowest as of June. A strong El Niño
is being blamed for such an anomaly, holding back the most beloved weather of
the world from us just like it did in 2009. If anyone had asked you about
India’s monsoon of the previous year, you may have responded with a satisfactory
smile. It was beautiful. The rivers were flowing to the brim and the
agricultural production was far better. I’m not sure what the government
figures tell, but the farmers of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh were
more-or-less happy with the yield if you forgive disease and pest outbreaks in
certain regions.
The monsoon of the year 2013 was considered to be the effect
of La Niña, a feminized
form of a weather condition which leads to cooling in the regions of the
Pacific Ocean (originating along the coast of Peru), giving the southwest
monsoon its strength to pour heavily upon the subcontinent. La Niña literally
means “little girl” in Spanish. In other regions, La Niña gives rise to severe
storms and hurricanes or to drought conditions in some parts of South America
and East Africa. What is happening this year, or is still being predicted, is
that we are facing the backlash of the plenty of the previous year. The fury of
La Niña is often followed by the brute of El Niño, meaning “little boy”
in Spanish, which is exactly opposite of La Niña. The
New Zealand Herald has explained these phenomena well.
Both these climatic events are crucial shapers of the weather
of our planet, and are equally responsible to make or break our heart. This
year, we are about to face El Niño, that little boy which scientists warned us
about many months ago. From the peak of the summer, in April-May months, news
of the status and the probability of this weather condition have been in the
forefront in media. News report that India will suffer with below-normal rains
this year, impacting agriculture and the
gold market, as empty clouds streak the sky sullen. No drop of moisture
remains in them to make grandeur fallout. Economic
Times reports that the rainfall deficit for the country is predicted at
37%, even before El Niño has developed. No rain, no food, no gold.
What causes such a cascade of crashes by a singular event is
a solemn thing. Edward N. Lorenz, professor of meteorology, in one of his finest papers,
asked: Does the flap of a butterfly’s
wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas? More commonly referred today as
“the butterfly
effect”, this part of the chaos theory says that the smallest change at one
place can result in large differences in a later state (Wikipedia: Butterfly
Effect). In the words of the author, “if a single flap of a butterfly’s
wings can be instrumental in generating a tornado, so also can all the previous
and subsequent flaps of its wings, as can the flaps of the wings of millions of
other butterflies, not to mention the activities of innumerable more powerful
creatures, including our own species”.
This beautiful poetic assertion of the
mathematician-cum-meteorologist is derived from some complex mathematical
models run on some complex computers of his time. The relevance of the
butterfly effect is quite crucial to understand the weather phenomenon that
affects farmers, and the gold markets. What it literally means, and how Lorenz
came upon it perchance, is quite interesting. An excerpt from the essay on the butterfly
effect from the University College London
tells the story:
“[…] in the early 60s Lorenz was
doing computer experiments on a 12-dimensional weather model. One day he
decided to run a particular time series for longer. In order to save time he
restarted his code from data from a previous printout. After returning from a
coffee break he found that his weather had diverged sharply from that of his
earlier run. After some checks he could only conclude that the difference was
caused by the difference in initial conditions: he had typed in only the first
three of the six decimal digits the computer worked with internally.
Apparently, his assumption that the fourth digit would be unimportant was
false.
Lorenz realised the importance of
his observation: “If, then, there is any error whatever in observing the
present state – and in any real system such errors seem inevitable – an
acceptable prediction of an instantaneous state in the distant future may well
be impossible.” Indeed, the error made by discarding the fourth and higher
digits is so small that it can be imagined to represent the effect of the flap
of the wings of a butterfly. In fact, Lorenz originally used the image of a
seagull. The more lasting name seems to have come from his address at the
annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in
Washington, 29 December 1972, which was entitled ‘Predictability: does the flap
of a butterfly’ wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?’.”
In the backdrop of this story, somewhere there is a
butterfly flapping its wings, leading El Niño to cause below-normal rainfall in
India, leading to rain-fed rivers running dry, impacting agriculture and the
agriculture-dependent businesses, and ultimately leading to inflation of food
and fuel prices, and, somewhere along the line, leading to a fall in the market
for gold, besides leading to a change
in the political climate. These events can be predicted, and have been
predicted just as Lorenz discovered five decades ago, but Lorenz in his poetic
anecdote has told us something far more substantial: the role of the activities of innumerable more powerful
creatures, including our own species.
If the rain gods are not happy, it is not because of the
flapping of a butterfly, but that of mankind. Collins
et al (2010), in their paper “the impact of global warming on the tropical
Pacific Ocean and El Niño", say that the mean climate of the tropical Pacific
region continue to change in the coming century as a result of past and future
projected emissions of greenhouse gases.
Latif and Keenlyside
(2009) also show that the equatorial Pacific, during the past half-century
has shown a clear warming trend, consistent with global warming. Several models
have been run to study the correlation between El Niño and global warming, and
all the models have shown different predictions (Wikipedia: El Niño). It is said
that it is difficult to predict the relation yet, however some studies show
that climate change could double the frequency of super El Niño events (source),
and 2014 is just one of the initial pages of a long book written by El Niño
with the consent of man.
It is too early to predict the wrath of the rain gods, but
it is a sign nonetheless. Fields are parched, and the first round of paddy has
failed in many regions across India. Whether you are a believer or not (of god
or climate change, you choose), human activities truly reflect on our planet.
In other words, one paddle of your bicycle, or a push of the accelerator of
your vehicle, can impact our planet’s climate.
--
You can keep a watch
on monsoon of India from the following websites:
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Sahyadrica turns six!
It was on June 28, 2008 (a fine La Niña year)
that I first started with Wanderer’s Eye. I have been refraining from
celebrating Sahyadrica’s birthdays for it reminds me of my age. This platform
is a part of my life now (and I should accept growing old); it is, after all, a place to see what I see! My primary
intention was to separate this blog from any human intervention, and I had
almost always abstained from posting pictures of humans, and I continued that
stint for almost two years before I had to give in. Earlier it was a blog
dedicated solely to nature – mostly for insects and spiders and plants. It was
later that I understood the role man plays in nature, of how important it is to
keep man in the view of viewing nature.
After six years and 131 articles, Sahyadrica, if not wiser,
has cut down on its obsession of hyphens (and will learn to reduce its commas
in the next), and has definitely piled information which you have accepted. I
thank you all!
I am glad to announce that Sahyadrica will now be displaying
works by others. Writers, thinkers who write, philosophers who write,
researchers, photographers, poets, and amateur journalists, and those who just
love to explore – on the neon-screen, city-streets, or in the wild, will be
using this platform to share knowledge – but more importantly, share passion
and emotions towards our natural wealth. This is to let you share what you see.
Let the world be a part of your eyes, and the world will probably wake up sooner than
later.
Nice one...and congrats to you for maintaining such a wonderful blog..
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